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    The Signal and the Noise

    The Signal and the Noise

    Dikke hardback met stofomslag in zeer goede staat. Engelstalig.

    Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?

    Nate Silver;

    € 9,50

    The Dictionary of...

    The Dictionary of Jewish Biography

    Dikke hardback met stofomslag in goede staat. Aantekening op schutblad. Rug stofomslag licht verkleurd. Verder netjes. Engelstalig.

    From Abraham to Saul Bellow, from Moses Maimonides to Woody Allen, from the Baal Shem Tov to Albert Einstein, this comprehensive dictionary of Jewish biographies provides a first point of entry into the fascinating richness of the Jewish heritage. Compiled with the assistance of a distinguished group of scholars, theDictionary of Jewish Biographyprovides a rapid reference to the biographies of almost 4000 Jewish men and women who, over the past four millennia, have contributed to the life, history, and study of Judaism in all its facets. Those profiled represent every walk of life and every area of accomplishment. Included are rabbinic scholars, key religious figures, spiritual leaders, founders of modern movements, major writers, Enlightenment figures, novelists, journalists, scientists, mystics, Israeli politicians, musicians, actors and actresses, film stars, famous rabbis, distinguished cantors, biblical figures, economists, architects, athletes, and radicals and heretics. Each entry is followed by a short bibliography. The book includes an extended Introduction, which explains the criteria for inclusion, and outlines the history of Israel and the Jewish diaspora. This dictionary will prove essential for general readers interested in the evolution of Judaism from ancient times to the present day, a perfect study aid for students and teachers. This panoramic bibliographic survey provides a unique guide to the leading figures of the past and present.

    Dan Cohn-Sherbok;

    € 6,50
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